Medicaid’s Wake-Up Call
For years, federal audits of state Medicaid programs weren’t much more than a bureaucratic annoyance. Come 2030, Missouri has something to fear.
Over the past several months, I’ve written about the many changes coming to Missouri’s welfare programs as a result of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB). One of the most impactful changes involves the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). In short, if Missouri doesn’t get its SNAP payment error rate below 6%, state taxpayers will start paying for a portion of the program’s benefit costs (the federal government currently covers 100% of benefits), which could potentially increase the state taxpayer cost to $400 million per year. A similar change is coming to Medicaid.
Despite accounting for roughly one fifth of total U.S. healthcare spending, Medicaid has until now lacked stringent federal accountability for payment errors. Just last year, more than $31 billion in improper payments were made across the program according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The OBBB requires HHS to reduce state Medicaid matching payments (more here on how Medicaid is financed) starting in 2030 when improper payment rates exceed 3% of total Medicaid expenditures.
Missouri should be particularly concerned about this change. In 2022, when the state’s Medicaid program was last audited by the federal government, its improper payment rate was 4.2%, which already exceeded the new 3% threshold. And there’s little reason to believe things have improved since then. Just last month, I wrote about the recent state audit showing that Missouri lacks systems to check enrollees against death records and that thousands of recipients went years without having their eligibility verified.
The financial implications for Missouri could be substantial. With more than one in five Missourians now on the program and Medicaid already consuming a massive portion of the state budget, even a small reduction in federal matching payments could force state taxpayers to cover millions more in costs.
The good news is that Missouri has more time to address this than it does for SNAP. The bad news? Given the state’s track record on technology modernization and the sheer volume of problems that need fixing, there’s plenty of reason for skepticism about whether Missouri will rise to the challenge.
While the OBBB’s focus on program integrity might be a nuisance for state bureaucrats, there’s no doubt that a corrective measure is long overdue. Taxpayers shouldn’t be burdened with millions (or perhaps billions) in new Medicaid costs because our state can’t get its improper payments under control.
