Does the Minimum Wage Impact Crime Rates?

Missourians may soon be voting on whether to increase the minimum wage from $12.30 to $15 by 2026. Before making that decision, they should consider the broader impact of such a wage increase. To begin, a minimum wage increase negatively affects low-income and low-skilled workers, causing them to suffer a disproportionate loss in hours worked or, unfortunately, the loss of their jobs. This reduction in hours worked or loss of their job not only reduces their income and makes it harder to learn skills, but may also make those affected more likely to commit crimes.

In recent years, several studies have also suggested a positive correlation between an increase in the minimum wage and property crime (such as burglary, larceny, and auto theft) committed by young adults, who are disproportionately impacted by an increase in the minimum wage. But why would a minimum wage increase lead to an increase in property crime?

The hypothesis is that when minimum wages increase, low-income and low-skilled workers experience a reduction in hours worked or increased unemployment, which often means a loss of income. The authors conclude that this decrease in earnings, reduction in hours worked, and increase in unemployment contribute to increases in property crime rates.

The effects of raising the minimum wage are particularly felt by workers who are younger, have a lower income, and are less skilled. The Journal of Economics study finds:

. . . using data from the 1998–2016 Uniform Crime Reports, we find that a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage led to increases in property crime arrests for those between the ages of 16-to-24 of approximately 2 to 3 percent.

Intuitively, this makes sense—losing your job or losing hours at your job could increase economic desperation, leading people to commit property crimes such as theft. In addition, jobs help give people structure and keep them on the right track. The Journal of Public Economics study mentions that more labor market opportunities for younger workers reduce criminal behavior because it increases the opportunity cost of crime. If you have a job, you have more to lose if you get caught committing a crime.

What does this all mean for Missourians? Raising the minimum wage can not only lead to fewer hours and jobs, but also more crime. To actually benefit low-income and low-skilled workers, shouldn’t we instead pursue policies that foster an environment enabling businesses to create more jobs, such as tax cuts or eliminating unnecessary occupational licensing?