In each decade of the past 50 years, Missouri’s population growth has failed to keep pace with the nation. From 2004 through 2023, Missouri had the 11th-worst decline in population share. As a result, Missouri lost a congressional district due to the reapportionment after the 2010 Census.
Our two biggest cities—the economic engines of the state—have failed to grow as well. The City of St. Louis is emptying out, dropping from 622,236 in 1970 to 301,578 in 2020, though the larger metropolitan area has absorbed much of that loss. Kansas City saw dramatic population drops in the 80s and 90s, though recent growth has brought us up to over 500,000 around where we were in 1970. (Even still, the Kansas suburbs have been growing at a much higher rate than the city proper for decades.)
U-Haul publishes a migration index each year. For 2024, Missouri ranked 28th for growth.
Where is everyone fleeing to? The largest beneficiary of Missourian departures is Kansas—which is not a surprise to those of us here in the eastern part of the state. Kansas’s suburbs offer better schools, seemingly better-maintained infrastructure, and lower crime. Second is Illinois, with Texas, Arkansas and Florida rounding out the top 5 destinations.
(Aside: Yes, Florida and Texas have better climates than Missouri, but so do plenty of other states. Florida and Texas also have no state income tax. The Tax Foundation reports that low-tax states saw greater population growth than high-tax states.)
Missouri’s portion of the national GDP is shrinking as well. We produced 2% of the nation’s GDP in 1997. Today we produce only 1.5%.
Missouri’s leaders, at the state and local level, must decide if they are satisfied with our slow and steady decline. If they aren’t, what are their plans to reverse it? It can’t be more of the same, where we have driven up housing costs through foolish energy policies, or failed to deliver basic public safety. It certainly cannot be a continuation of former Governor Mike Parson’s profligate spending.
The Show-Me Institute has some ideas, thank you for asking, and most of them are about helping Missourians by getting government out of the way of families, businesses and entrepreneurs.
Not everyone will agree with our proposals. That is fine. But every leader should be asked: if not these policies, then what is your plan for reversing Missouri’s glide path to oblivion?
